In recent times, one of history’s oldest wars has regained the spotlight with the potential of being another front for a global conflict. The clash between the former Soviet territories of Armenia and Azerbaijan can be traced back to the early 20th century. It stems from cultural and ethnic differences between the population of the Nagorno-Karabakh and seven surrounding districts which are de facto run by the Republic of Artsakh, but internationally recognized as de jure part of Azerbaijan. [1]
The region has primarily been inhabited by the ethnic groups of Armenians since a period of antiquity. Following the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the two countries of Armenia and Azerbaijan were formed. Azerbaijan gained the territories of Nagorno-Karabakh as it was part of Soviet Azerbaijan before the collapse. But this heightened tensions in Armenia and led to an all-out war lasting from 1988 to 1994. While the issue has been restricted to a few border skirmishes for the past 20 years, this year due to intensifying strains, a more dangerous and higher form of war seems undeniable.
History:
While the Soviet Union was still in power, it had decided to divide Soviet Armenia and Soviet Azerbaijan. The region of Nagorno-Karabakh was ceded to Azerbaijan even though 95% of the population was primarily ethnic Armenians. There were no repercussions to this during Soviet reign, but in 1988 towards the collapse of the Soviet Union, tensions began to stir up over the disputed territory. Armenia demanded that Nagorno-Karabakh be ceded to them, but Azerbaijan refused and this commenced the Nagorno-Karabakh War that lasted till 1994. The battle came to an end when a ceasefire was called by the United States, France and Russia, the so-called ‘Minsk Group’. Right before the ceasefire, Armenia had practically taken over the full territory of Nagorno-Karabakh or Artsakh and a general referendum, which the Azeri people boycotted, had nearly 99.8% of voters opting to gain independence from Azerbaijan. [2]
The armistice was negotiated by the Minsk Group acting under the O.S.C.E. During the truce it was decided that since Armenia had almost full control over Artsakh, which accounted for over 20% of the Azeri land, Artsakh would have partial autonomy with a de facto Government ruling the ‘Republic of Artsakh’ although Nagorno-Karabakh is internationally recognized as a part of Azerbaijan. The last two decades have seen border skirmishes in the region, but not as severe as the 1988-1994 War. Nevertheless, the recent rise in tensions has disrupted the peace and tranquillity of the people.
Recent events:
After almost 20 years of minor encounters, the Azeri and Armenian governments have openly declared a state of martial law and waged war against one another. But why now? [3]
1. Azerbaijan’s global footprint has increased dramatically due to its primarily oil-driven economy, which has forged many international friendships and fueled different ties with its neighbours such as Turkey and Iran. This enhanced economy has led to a larger defence budget for the Azeri, in turn, raising the military capacity of Azerbaijan over Armenia. This has caused the Azerbaijan Government to question Armenian dominance in the region of Artsakh. They would like to regain control of the area for the good of their people and to show the world the strength of the Azeri people.
2. The Republic of Turkey used to be a bystander to this conflict, but recently it has come out with frequent and adamant support for Azerbaijan. It is the main international presence demanding the relinquishment of Artsakh to the Azeri. Turkey supports Azerbaijan chiefly due to its abundance of oil reserves and since Russia sides with Armenia. Turkey and Russia have been in a proxy war for a few years now. It would be in Turkey’s best interests to help fight against what it calls Russia’s dominance in the region. It has been very encouraging of Azerbaijan and is reportedly sending military weapons, soldiers and mercenaries to the region. The Guardian reported the use of cluster munitions, illegal under Intl. Humanitarian Law, by Azeri forces. Their recent act of aggression included bringing in Syrian fighters of the Free Syrian Army from Turkey. This raises serious international concerns over the lengths Azerbaijan will go to regain Artsakh.[4]
3. The contemporary acts of militancy from both sides have sparked a lot of international debate, but one party which is being unnaturally quiet is the United States. Historically the U.S has been extremely vocal about this conflict as they were a part of the Minsk Group, which mediated the ceasefire between the two parties in 1994. For example, in 2016, the Secretary of State John Kerry stepped in to sort out a few border skirmishes. But in recent times, the U.S doesn’t seem very interested in the conflict primarily due to the ongoing US elections and the fact that the new foreign policy of Trump focuses on lesser international engagement. These events place the remaining members of the Minsk Group, Russia and France, in an awkward position as Russia is seen in favour of Armenia. It is the country’s biggest weapons supplier and has signed a mutual defence pact with Armenia. Turkey and Russia have been fighting a proxy war for quite some time which add to the tensions in the region. All these reasons factor into how Russian mediated peace talks seem improbable.[5]
Conclusion:
In conclusion, there are multiple international motivations involved in this conflict, including but not limited to Turkey-Russia relations and the non-interference of the US. Dwelling in these motives, the domestic intentions and the feelings of the people of Nagorno Karabakh might be perilously ignored. The only ones being directly impacted by any decision are the people. Over the weeks, the Artsakh civilians have been subjected to civilian shelling by both Armenian and Azeri forces. Around 18 commoners were killed and hundreds seriously injured. With the inclusion of illegal cluster munitions and Syrian mercenaries, the safety of civilians has been a grave question.[6]
There is an unmistakable political motivation in Azerbaijan with their elections coming up. Regaining the region of Artsakh would win major political points from the Azeri people. Although peaceful talks would be a step in the right direction, political and international involvement makes it extremely unlikely. The protection of the Artsakh people is unknown. Furthermore, this domestic conflict has the potential to ignite an all-out war between Russia, Turkey and Syria and it has been seen in the recent buildup in tensions over the new Russian brokered truce which has essentially been labeled as a victory for Azerbaijan.
The truce signed by Russia, Armenia and Azerbaijan, explains how the Armenian forces have to withdraw from the region of Artsakh and the Azeri flag will remain over Artsakh. Russian and Turkish forces will be dispatched as peacekeeping forces until all the Armenian people living in Artsakh will be moved back into Armenia.[7]
The Armenian Government has said that this is beneficial for the people of Artsakh as the Azeri forces were closing in on shelling the capital city of Stepanakert which would endager millions. This deal, as expected has shown widespread adoration from the Azeri people and has helped increase public favour towards President Aliyev. This peace deal has sparked major protests among the Armenian people but the ceasefire was an absolute neccessity in order to prevent more losses as said by Prime Minister Pashinyan, but the main people to be concerned about are the people of Artsakh, who are suffering due to the influence of many global heavyweights which has triggered a global response.
The politcal extent of the Russian and Turkish support in Artsakh and towards Azerbaijan remains unknown but the plight of the people cannot and should not be ignored. Due to the pandemic, help is hard to find in the region and with no permanent solution in sight, Artsakh still has a chance to be a catalyst for global conflict.
Article by-
Tarun Aiyappa,
For the Record,
PES Mun Society
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