Communist Russia came into being in the 20th century behind the rhetoric of “Workers of the World Unite”. But when the workers ‘disbanded’, many fled to the Sea of the West like newborn sea turtles. The iron-built nest of the Warsaw Pact eroded due to corrosion in the form of pro-democracy and nationalistic movements seeping in since the 1980s. Russia in the subsequent years, saw its fear take shape.
The chaos surrounding the fall of the USSR and the negligence of the Soviet leaders led to a fiercely fought territorial dispute in the Nagorno-Karabakh region between Azerbaijan and Armenia. The conflict is the longest-running in post-Soviet Eurasia.
Mikhail Gorbachev and His Reforms
Mikhail Gorbachev was the last Soviet leader before the fall of the USSR. Gorbachev’s legacy as a reformer and statesman remains a subject of debate and discussion to this date.
In 1985, Gorbachev became the General Secretary of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union. A series of sweeping reforms designed to modernise and liberalise the Soviet Union’s political and economic systems marked Gorbachev’s presidency[1].
Gorbachev’s Reforms
Perestroika - Seeking to bring the Soviet Union up to economic par with capitalist countries such as the United States, this policy included decentralising economic decision-making, and giving more autonomy to Soviet republics.
Glasnost – This policy aimed to increase public debate and transparency by promoting freedom of speech and the press. Under this, the Soviet Government relaxed media censorship, paving the way for greater criticism of the government.
Gorbachev’s poor attempts at democratising the Soviet Union saw the opening up of long-suppressed ethnic tensions and nationalistic sentiments. An optimistic step towards the modernisation of Soviet society led to an outlet for the long-suppressed rage of the Azerbaijani and Armenian people.
The Nagorno – Karabakh region
The region of Nagorno – Karabakh has seen its share of demographic changes and claims over its governance and autonomy. As we look back at the origins of conflict in this region, we must recall another of Russia’s infamous leaders, Joseph Stalin. In 1921, Stalin gave the region to Azerbaijan and then two years later, turned it into an autonomous region[2]. Nagorno – Karabakh’s population at that time was over 90 per cent Armenian. Also, most Armenians are Christian whereas Azerbaijan was and still is a Muslim-majority nation. The conflict has never seen religion as a war cry, but Stalin’s decision created a Christian-majority enclave in a Muslim-majority nation.
The region has great geopolitical significance due to its location between Europe and Asia. The Caspian Sea is situated to its East and serves as a transit route from the Caspian region to Europe and beyond. The region is rich in oil and natural gas reserves making its pipelines highly valuable for the European Union as it looks to decrease its dependence on Russian oil[10]. Even more so after the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
The region has a majority of ethnic Armenians and a minority Azerbaijani population. The region has seen a serious shift in its demographics due to the fighting that broke out in September 2020. 2/3rd of the Ethnic Armenians took refuge in Armenia and only about half of that returned once a ceasefire was brokered.
The Disgruntled
Even though Azerbaijan is bigger and more populated than Armenia, both countries have small populations. Agriculture[12] and Tourism[11] are important industries in both countries, with Azerbaijan having a diverse demographic with a rich cultural heritage[13].
International groups and countries have tried to make peace but to no avail. The region has seen multiple ceasefire violations and both sides have even made claims of ethnic cleansing, human rights violations and pogroms conducted by the other[3].
With enraged people and governments incapable of bringing resolution, propaganda against the other is being injected into the population. Both parties have resorted to propaganda to advance their narratives and showcase themselves as the victim of the conflict. Azerbaijan accuses Armenia of occupying its territory and Armenia has been raising its voice against increasing Azerbaijani aggression. Propaganda finds its way into not only newspapers and media houses but even children’s textbooks[4].
But as the conflict between them has spilt over, it is no longer just a territorial dispute but rather a breeding ground for other countries to fight for their interests. A conflict fuelled by nationalism has now become a place for other countries to further their nationalistic goals and ambitions.
Major Events and Players
The First Nagorno-Karabakh War started after ethnic clashes broke out between Armenians and Azerbaijanis when the parliament of the then-autonomous region voted to unify with Armenia on February 20th,1988. It was Russia in May, 1994, that was able to broker a ceasefire, leading to a period of diplomatic mediation. In 1992, the United States, France, and Russia (Minsk Group) experienced failure in the coming years.
2008–2020 saw several border clashes erupt with the ones in 2016 being the most violent and casualty heavy.
The Second Nagorno-Karabakh War in 2020 has been the most significant concerning international tensions and geopolitics of the South Caucasus.
Russia
Russia under Vladimir Putin has pursued a more “assertive” foreign policy, to say the least. But Russia fails in its attempt to imitate a global superpower. Russia and Putin hide their incompetence behind its wells of Mother Earth’s sweetest nectar—oil.
However, Russia has adopted a cautious stance in this conflict since it maintains economic ties with both countries. But, Azerbaijan is also one of the most significant importers of arms from Russia, much to the displeasure of Armenia.
Russia aims to be the key mediator in this conflict, wanting to keep a hold on it due to the increasing involvement of Turkey, a NATO ally. Russia has a defence treaty with Armenia which it aims to honour[13]. Russia sent over 2000 peacekeeping troops to mediate the crisis in the three-mile area of the Lachin corridor in November 2020.
Turkey – A New Bully
Turkey single-handedly upset the geopolitics of the region when it pledged full support to Azerbaijan, including military support[5]. Azerbaijan and Armenia hold the key to the gateway of Europe and Turkey has capitalised on the weakened South Caucasus. The war in 2020 was marked by drone strikes and heavy artillery. The war was also characterised by fierce information warfare involving state propaganda.
Armenia saw massive losses as its inferior military and capabilities were crushed. Armenia surrendered to Azerbaijan and returned territories captured in 1994. Armenia has been thrown into a crisis, one it may take years to recover from. The political crisis has rattled the people, inciting fear and a newfound rage. Ethnic Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh will be forced out.
However, Azerbaijan continues its relentless scheming in the region, the latest being its plan to annex Artsakh beginning with the blockade of the Lachin corridor[6].
Turkey seems to have become the new aggressor in the region, having previously sent troops to Syria and Libya, hoping to see their civil wars turn to a side favourable to them.
But Turkey’s support to Azerbaijan comes to the surprise of no one. Both countries have had talks of “One Nation, Two States”[7]. The languages spoken are the same and many people of Turkish descent live in Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan even supports Turkey in denying the Armenian Genocide of 1915-16[8].
In Conclusion
The war started with the Soviet states being given the “right to create”. It soon turned into a “right to hate” and the hate today has engulfed both countries. Azerbaijan is an autocratic country with a non-existent free press and the opposition rotting in jail. Turkey is another autocracy, which pushes Azerbaijan into a void of seething hot hatred for its neighbour. With both of these puppet democracies piling on Armenia, Armenia looks for hope in the international community with Russia being at the forefront of this crisis.
The crisis has the potential to end with the ethnic cleansing of Armenians from the region. Another looming possibility is a ceasefire which would see Turkey becoming a major power in the region, a possibility that Russia would fight tooth and nail to avoid.
The only viable outcome can be achieved through diplomacy. A compromise between Armenia and Azerbaijan that allows for better ethnic rights for ethnic Armenians in the region regardless of how the region is governed. This peace, however, must be deliberated upon free from the influence of Russia and Turkey.
However, no agreement can stop the conflict which is now deeply rooted in the hearts of the Azerbaijani and Armenian people. The bloody picture of this conflict suggests that this ceasefire too is a deal to pause, not prevent.
The only hope for the Armenian people is the people themselves. The Velvet Revolution in 2018 showcased the spirit and will of the Armenian people[9]. They must find that again as they remain the last bastion of democracy in the South Caucasus.
Article by: Kumar Abhyuday, Member, PES MUN Society, RR Campus
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