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Samarth Bhandary

Peril in the Pacific: Guadalcanal in the Dragon’s Clasp?

Introduction


The Pacific Islands have been an overlooked geopolitical region in international politics for a long time. Indeed their sparse population, lack of land, and most importantly, isolation from the rest of the world have kept these islands relatively untouched by the global cacophony of conflicting powers and interests. This is not to say that they are of little importance. Far from it actually. These islands and the waters surrounding them have abundant wildlife, possible oil reserves, and most importantly, provide a vital trade corridor between the east and west. Controlling the Pacific would, thus, grant any warring power great benefit and advantage in any conflict.


The Pacific Theatre of the Second World War saw Japan and the United States of America battle it out over the open ocean in many naval battles. As the balance of power shifted, first from the conflict between the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) and the United States, then between the United States and the People’s Republic of China (PRC), the Pacific Islands have heightened in importance on the world stage. China’s presence in the South China Sea, and its bizarre practice of sending fishing vessels into foreign waters to check a country’s ability to respond to its foreign policy, has alarmed Washington. The U.S.A. views these incursions as a violation of international laws and a direct threat to its global hegemony.



Source: Matthew Meier

Illusion of Tranquillity


Among the many islands scattered across the vast ocean are the Solomon Islands. The island nation is typical of a Pacific Island nation — an economy dependent on tourism and fishing, beautiful landscapes, and a small population. Being a former colony of the erstwhile German Empire, and later the U.K., after the latter’s defeat during the First World War.


After years of being neglected under colonial rule, in 1978, the Solomon Islands gained self-rule. Though still nominally under British rule, for the first time in centuries, the islanders could start forging their own path into an increasingly polarised world, or so they thought. Though free from direct British control, they stayed within the western sphere of influence, being heavily dependent on Australia and New Zealand for trade.



Source: New Security Beat

However, this trend of western reliance has seen a reversal in recent years, with the current government pushing itself further away from being dependent on the West. The current government has taken active steps to wean itself off of Western support, and one of the steps it took was to recognize the People’s Republic of China as the legitimate government of China, and thereby, putting an end to decades of ties between the Republic of China (ROC), commonly known as Taiwan. (Refer to our article here for a more in-depth breakdown of that issue.)


Funding from both the ROC and PRC to lobby for a change in the stance of the government has been a constant issue in the politics of the nation, being the diplomatic outlier that it was for so long, with the two sides supporting opposing political movements to gain the upper ground. For now, it seems the pro-PRC side has won out, with the Solomon Islands rescinding their recognition of the ROC only in 2021. Moreover, the recent defence deal with the PRC has led to a magnitude foreign policy shift on the part of the island nation.


These developments hide the problems that plague the nation. A small population, a weak economy, and relative isolation from the world at large have led to upheaval and a lack of a strong foreign policy. China’s neo-colonialism is not an outlier. The Pacific Islands, as well as many other parts of the world, have become mere bit players in the chess game of greater powers, who exploit them and use them as means to their end, and also as means to project their power.


The Dragon’s Ascent


After its establishment in 1949, the PRC government found it difficult to gain international recognition. Boycotted by the West, who still placed their bets on the ROC government in Taiwan, the rest of the non-Soviet aligned world mostly followed in their stance. Hence, since its establishment, the PRC has sought to establish international relations and create strategic allies, both as a method of securing international legitimacy for itself, as well as to quell internal dissent and quash rebellion [1]. Though its days of international isolation are a thing of the past, China’s need to expand its influence is not, especially as a counterweight to an increasingly hostile West, especially the United States of America.



Source: DNA India

Being flanked on its east by American allies, the Chinese have attempted to make allies wherever they can, no matter how big or small; and, keeping this in mind, the Pacific is an ideal place to make alliances. Relatively isolated and ignored by other great powers, they could easily be convinced to ally with China.


While China continued strengthening ties with countries with an already anti-American stance such as Russia and Iran, it has attempted to create new connections with more diplomatically neutral and/or isolated countries to improve its position. Chinese banks have achieved their objectives in multiple ways, including massive infrastructure projects, under the regime’s flagship Belt and Road Initiative, funding pro-Chinese political movements abroad, and recently, establishing military bases in foreign countries.


However, saying that these developments have gone unnoticed would be a fallacy. The recent defence deal has triggered strong vitriol from the western camp, especially from Australia and New Zealand, with them already having particularly strained ties with China and being in attack range of any future Chinese military base in the region. The Americans have also been alarmed by the increasing Chinese military build-up in the face of their ongoing tensions.


Source: The Japan Times

Deadlock after the Deal


So far, we have only discussed the implications of this deal for the two powers competing for influence. We shall now look at the implications of the deal for the Solomon Islands and the world at large. According to President Manasseh Sogavare, the prime motives were the failure of existing treaties with the Government of Australia. The deal also had secondary objectives, such as ensuring the nation’s internal stability as Australian assistance failed to quash internal unrest against the current regime. Australia had dispatched police forces to the island, however, they were unable to quell protesters. This prompted the Government of the Solomon Islands to look for alternative arrangements to secure its internal security. However, not wishing to anger their western allies, they negotiated in secret with the Chinese Government over a few months until a final deal was agreed upon by the two governments.


This deal essentially allowed China to send troops into the Solomon Islands if the government requested such assistance. However, it expressly denies the Chinese the ability to set up a military base in the islands.


There was fear that such a deal could be offered to other Pacific Island nations, but recent talks have failed to produce results [2], and the other islands seem to be hostile to any Chinese offerings, owing to western pressure.


Despite these provisions, the West sees developments with increasing alarm. Giving China access to the Pacific Ocean would be a major security risk to the West, since many major trade routes pass through the Pacific Ocean, and having a Chinese military presence in the region would be a threat to the status quo. The U.S., Australia, and New Zealand have been especially alarmed, and have stated multiple times that in any case of aggression, the islands would become a choke point and a possible epicentre of conflict.


Conclusion


Indeed, in addition to the South China Sea issue, the Taiwan issue, and other more minor territorial disputes between China and its neighbours [3], the West is in between a rock and a hard place, far too dependent on China but equally threatened. This event will be one of many to come, as this ominous peace continues between the two power blocs.



Article by:

Samarth Bhandary


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