India, with its rich history, vast size, and strategic location, stands as one of the undisputed leaders in South Asia. Spanning a population of over 1.4 billion people and boasting one of the largest and fastest-growing economies, India is undeniably the most influential player in the region. It has long provided economic and humanitarian assistance to its neighbours, reinforcing its image as the elder sibling of South Asia. India has played a pivotal role in peacekeeping operations under the United Nations, contributing significantly to the stability of countries like Sri Lanka and Nepal.
India’s influence in South Asia has strengthened through its membership in various regional and international blocs. These include the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC), and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) [1]. India has consistently aimed to foster deeper ties, bolster regional security, and promote economic collaboration. India's strategic partnerships, including with Japan, the United States, and Australia under the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD), further reflect its growing prominence on the world stage. Yet, despite all this, India’s relationships with its immediate neighbours have become increasingly complicated, with China’s growing influence in the region and the shifting global power dynamics creating new challenges.
A Big Brother Who Wears a Different Mask
If India moves with the steady hand of a guiding elder, China strides as the unblinking overseer—a calculating power whose reach extends far beyond borders, reshaping the very fabric of South Asia.
Like the ever-watchful Big Brother, China's influence is felt in the corridors of each neighbouring government, the docks of newly built ports, and the binding clauses of its economic agreements. Since 1947, the two nations have had a fraught relationship, ranging from military clashes to economic competition. The border dispute, especially over areas like Arunachal Pradesh and Aksai Chin, has been a long-standing source of tension. However, China has steadily sought to reshape the balance of power in the region, primarily through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a colossal infrastructure project that aims to connect China with countries across Asia, Africa, and Europe.
China’s Belt and Road Initiative is seen by many as a subtle form of economic domination, with billions of dollars funnelled into infrastructure projects in countries like Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Nepal, and the Maldives. But the cost of these projects, often in the form of loans, has placed these countries in financial peril, creating a scenario where they are increasingly dependent on China, both economically and politically. China’s moves in South Asia go beyond infrastructure projects. The strategic construction of ports, such as the Hambantota Port in Sri Lanka, and the Gwadar Port in Pakistan, places China in a prime position to control key maritime routes, a direct challenge to India’s security interests. China's growing influence, particularly in the Indian Ocean, is seen as an effort to encircle India and limit its freedom of manoeuvre in the region [2].
What India finds most disconcerting is China’s economic reach and its insidious attempts to undermine India’s political standing in its backyard. China’s close relationship with Pakistan is a case in point, as Beijing continues to bolster Pakistan's military capabilities while fuelling the Kashmir conflict. This partnership has been a thorn in India’s side, especially as China has begun playing a larger role in the region, displacing India’s historical position as the primary regional influencer.
Source: BBC News // Belt and Road Initiative Expansion Plans
Sri Lanka, Maldives and Nepal: Puppets in China’s Game
As China’s economic clout expands, countries like the Maldives, Sri Lanka, and Nepal have found themselves caught in a web of debt and dependency that directly threatens India’s interests. These countries, which have historically had strong ties to India, are increasingly turning to China, attracted by the allure of financial assistance and infrastructure projects.
Sri Lanka, for example, has become heavily indebted to China, particularly through its ambitious port projects. The Hambantota Port, once a symbol of Sri Lanka’s sovereignty, was leased to China for 99 years after Sri Lanka defaulted on its loan repayments [3]. This port, strategically located in the Indian Ocean, is now effectively under Chinese control, and the situation has left India feeling increasingly marginalized. In the Maldives, China’s growing influence is even more evident. The Maldives, a key strategic partner for India, has witnessed increasing Chinese investment in infrastructure projects, including roads, airports, and resorts. While the Maldives' political leadership is seen as pro-China, much of the population remains sceptical of China’s intentions.
Nepal, too, has fallen into China’s orbit in recent years. The construction of roads, hydropower projects, and the ongoing implementation of China’s BRI projects have deepened Nepal’s dependence on its northern neighbour. This shift has been accompanied by growing friction between Nepal and India, particularly over border disputes, as Nepal has openly sided with China on certain issues.
Perhaps the most striking aspect of this China-driven shift is that many of these nations are now economically bankrupt due to their loans. Sri Lanka’s external debt stood at over $55 billion in 2020, with a significant portion owed to China. Nepal’s growing reliance on China has similarly created a situation where its fiscal health is heavily dependent on Chinese funds. While China’s loans may appear like a lifeline, they come with long-term consequences—both economic and geopolitical. The resulting debt traps have compromised the sovereignty of these nations and, by extension, threatened India’s security and regional influence.
Source: CSIS
Bangladesh: A Longstanding Ally, Yet Complex Relations
Unlike the neighbours to the West and North, Bangladesh has historically been one of India’s most trusted allies. The shared history of the Bangladesh Liberation War, in which India played a decisive role, has provided a solid foundation for bilateral relations. In the years since, India has supported Bangladesh in numerous ways, from helping rebuild the country’s infrastructure to assisting with its fight against extremism. India has also been a critical trading partner for Bangladesh, providing a significant market for its goods.
One of the most poignant moments in this relationship came in the early 1970s when Bangladesh’s current Prime Minister, Sheikh Hasina, was forced into exile in India after the assassination of her father, Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, the country’s first president. India opened its doors to her, providing sanctuary during a time of political unrest. Despite this close bond, recent years have seen tensions between the two countries, primarily due to the Rohingya refugee crisis and issues of religious intolerance within Bangladesh.
The Rohingya crisis, which saw hundreds of thousands of refugees fleeing Myanmar’s military persecution, put significant strain on India-Bangladesh relations. While India provided humanitarian aid, it also voiced concerns about the security and demographic implications of a large refugee population on its borders. Bangladesh has accused India of not taking enough actions to address the crisis, leading to some diplomatic tension between the two nations.
Moreover, religious intolerance in Bangladesh, particularly toward its Hindu minority, has become a growing concern for India. The recent destruction of Hindu temples, including the Iskcon temple in 2021, has put India on edge. While India has long been an advocate for Bangladesh's secular credentials, the increasing violence against religious minorities in Bangladesh has raised alarms in New Delhi [4]. This shift in Bangladesh’s internal dynamics—away from its secular roots—is something India is watching with increasing concern.
Source: India Narrative //1971 Bangladesh Liberation War
A Tale As Old as Time
India and Pakistan, two neighbouring South Asian countries that emerged from the partition of British India in 1947, have since taken markedly different paths in terms of political stability, economic growth, and regional influence. While India has grown into a vibrant democracy with one of the world’s largest and fastest-growing economies, Pakistan continues to struggle with political instability, economic crises, and ongoing threats from militant groups. This stark contrast has significant implications for South Asia’s geopolitics, with both nations vying for influence amid vastly different national landscapes.
India’s relationship with Pakistan remains one of the most complicated and volatile in the world. Since the partition of British India in 1947, the two countries have fought three wars, engaged in numerous skirmishes, and failed to resolve their disputes over Kashmir. The relationship is marked by mutual suspicion, with both countries maintaining large military forces, particularly along the contested Kashmir border.
In recent years, tensions have flared over incidents like the 2016 Uri attack and the 2019 Pulwama attack, both of which involved militant groups with ties to Pakistan. These events led to military standoffs, including India’s surgical strikes across the Line of Control (LoC) and aerial dogfights between the two nations. India’s decision to revoke Article 370 in 2019, which previously granted special autonomy to Jammu and Kashmir, has been a transformative step in integrating the region more fully with the rest of the country.
Pakistan’s military and intelligence services continue to shelter militants targeting India, and its strategic alliance with China only deepens the complexity of the situation. With China’s support, Pakistan has grown more assertive on the global stage, particularly in its stance on Kashmir. Additionally, Pakistan’s strong ties with China, especially through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), have bolstered its strategic positioning, though this comes at the cost of mounting economic dependency. China’s investment of over $60 billion into CPEC has brought infrastructure development, but many of these projects have burdened Pakistan with significant debt, yielding limited economic returns and raising concerns about long-term financial stability.
Source: Indian Express //India -Pakistan 1971 war
Becoming Vishwaguru
India’s role in South Asia is undeniably central, yet its position is increasingly complicated by rising external and internal challenges. The growing influence of China, the shifting alliances of its neighbours, and regional tensions have all created a difficult geopolitical environment for India. Despite the challenges, India must continue to assert its leadership through diplomacy, regional cooperation, and strategic alliances. Its historical ties to countries like Bangladesh remain strong, and its growing partnerships with global powers like the United States and Japan provide a buffer against regional instability.
However, India must also be mindful of the changing dynamics within South Asia, especially the influence of China. As India navigates this complex terrain, it will need to balance its ambition for regional dominance with the realities of its geopolitical challenges. The question remains: can India rise above the competing interests of its neighbours, especially China while maintaining peace and security within its borders and the broader South Asian region?
Article by:
Riddhi Pandya
Member
PES MUN Society
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