The Karnataka State elections in May 2023, proved that the tradition of the changing political landscape of Karnataka every five years remains true. Despite their constant efforts, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) was only able to secure 65 of the available 224 seats, while their rival party the Indian National Congress secured 135, well surpassing the 113 required for a majority rule. [1]
Previous Elections
To understand the current political situation, looking back at previous elections and changes in Karnataka is important.
From 1985 to 2017, Karnataka had never voted for a BJP government. In 2018 however, they secured 104 seats in the election. Despite their success, they still could not cross the 113-seat threshold needed to form a majority government. In response, Congress and JDS joined together. Their combined number of seats secured them a majority, and the two parties formed a coalition government. The arrangement eventually broke down after 14 months, leaving the BJP in power.
Although the outcome in Karnataka came as a harrowing loss to the BJP, it should be noted that a trend has persisted since the previous decade: Every five years, the political landscape of Karnataka changes. The elections of 2008, 2013, 2018 and presently 2023 show that the party with the majority number of seats constantly oscillates between BJP and Congress.
Yet another swing in the election results of 2023, begs to question why BJP failed to deliver.
Weak Leadership
Back in July 2021, after several allegations, including corruption and other internal issues, the BJP’s four-time chief minister B.S. Yediyurappa resigned after weeks of uncertainty. Yediyurappa, a Lingayat, had been a crucial factor in paving the way for BJP since 2008. Although it was impertinent for him to resign, it still left a major gap in the leadership of the BJP in Karnataka. Yeddiyurappa was replaced with the much younger Basavaraj Bommai, who was considered to have a comparatively cleaner image. [2]
In hindsight, this tactic could have been one of the leading factors as to why BJP was unable to achieve a majority. Bommai failed to emerge as a strong leader that the people could have faith in. There was already animosity from the Lingayats that believed Yediyurappa had been forced to retire. Despite Bommai being a Lingayat himself, he was unable to garner their support to the same extent Yediyurappa did.
The biggest hit was when Bommai and the government were accused of corruption. This claim stemmed from Congress-led campaigns since the end of 2022, such as ‘40% Sarkara’ and ‘PayCM’. These campaigns along with the arrest of former BJP MLA Madal Virupakshappa and his son, infuriated the voters as the BJP ended up taking a major hit on the corruption plank. [3]
Seeing that their efforts were failing, the BJP brought back Yediyurappa who still was widely accepted and very popular. Although he was the face of the campaign, the BJP remained vague about whether Yediyurappa would replace Bommai or not, a decision that left many people uncertain of their decision to vote for BJP.
Another dagger to their motives was the party’s decision to not focus on the benefits to the citizens. They had switched their focus to the central party, making their campaign rely heavily on prime minister Narendra Modi.
Reliance on Modi
BJP relied heavily on prime minister Narendra Modi’s ‘star power’. During the last phase before the elections, Modi appeared for grand roadshows and massive electoral rallies throughout Karnataka. Although these tactics were able to bring to light positive measures taken by the central government, it failed to realise that most people were more interested in the benefits that the local government could provide.
Eventually, BJP made efforts to appeal to locals with schemes such as free gas cylinders and other financial incentives, however, these commitments were unable to appeal to people and were shadowed by Congress’ five guarantees.
The Five Guarantees
The major contributor to the success of Congress during the May 10th elections can be pointed to the five guarantees that they promised to implement: [4]
Gruha Jyoti: 200 units of free electricity would be provided to each household.
Gruha Lakshmi: ₹2000 for the women head of every family.
Anna Bhagya: 10 kgs of free rice to all members of households below the poverty line
Uchita Prayana: Free bus travel for women interstate.
Yuva Nidhi: Youth unemployed after 6 months of getting their degree can avail up to ₹3000 per month until they find work for two years.
Although these schemes were calculated to cost the state around ₹50,000 crores annually, according to the Congress Research Department, these guarantees would help with offsetting the income stagnation and the effects of inflation.
These five guarantees were favourably received. Exit polls conducted by Axis My India revealed that Congress received 11 per cent more of the women’s vote when compared to BJP. The same study also found that poor and rural areas voted significantly higher for Congress. [5]
Effect of Election Results
The question remains whether the loss of Karnataka for the BJP will prove detrimental to them in the 2024 elections. Being the only South Indian state where BJP had established its presence, might become a cause for concern. Looking at the split across the parties, BJP still managed to retain 36% of its share of votes that it had in 2018 [6] while Congress was able to increase its vote share from JDS.
A cause of concern for the BJP during these elections should be the shift of its core voting bank. During the recent elections, most of the urban middle class still voted for BJP, however, there was a significant shift in the voting decisions of the youth and women. Only time will tell if this change will cause significant losses for BJP in the coming national elections.
Article by:
Dhriti Krishnan,
Co-editor, For the Record
PES MUN Society (RR Campus).