The political environment in the United States of America is ever-changing. But what exactly does it look like now? How will it impact future state and federal legislation? How does this act as the litmus test for the 2024 US Presidential election? These are the pertinent questions that this article aims to address.
On Tuesday, November 3rd, 2020, the electoral college certified Joseph Robinette Biden Jr.’s victories in the Commonwealth of Virginia and the state of New Jersey over incumbent President Donald Trump. Joe Biden won in Virginia by a triumphant 450,000 votes, translating to 10 percentage points. In New Jersey, he trounced Trump by 725,000 votes, roughly 16 points. The results from New Jersey were in line with historical performances; however, Trump acutely underperformed in Virginia.
A year later, the Virginia gubernatorial election was held. Republican candidate Glenn Youngkin defeated Terry McAuliffe by 2 points. In New Jersey, Jack Ciatarelli, the GOP pick, lost to Democrat Phil Murphy by a mere 2.4 points. This colossal swing was a key indicator that the GOP was primed to do extremely well in the 2022 midterm elections.
In the summer of 2022, the American political landscape changed forever. Politico released a leaked draft opinion from the Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS) in the Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organisation case. The Court believed that Roe v. Wade, the keystone decision that enforced “States to impose virtually no restrictions on medical abortions performed during the first trimester of pregnancy”, was unconstitutional. The same decision was overturned on June 24th, 2022. In the wake of the decision, protests erupted across the nation, helmed by “pro-choice” advocates. The voters’ unhappiness became evident in the opinion polls- the GOP saw their lead in the generic opinion polls gradually evaporate [1].
But how consequential was the decision? The Harvard CAPS/Harris poll is well-respected in the industry. Their October report suggested that abortion is only the 5th most pressing issue for the American electorate. The top 4 are dominated by issues that Republicans have continuously hammered home: the economy, inflation, crime, and immigration.
However, this dominance did not translate into votes in key states. Famous polling aggregator FiveThirtyEight gave the Republicans a 60 percent chance of securing a majority in the United States Senate, which did not materialise [2]. The projected composition is 50-49, with the election in Georgia advancing to a runoff.
Additionally, the Republicans barely eked out a win in the House of Representatives. It is to be noted that the Republicans nabbed the majority vote, winning the raw vote total by 3 points. Thus, the Republicans’ message resonated more with independent voters who were unhappy with the candidates that the party had propped up. Even though Joe Biden’s approval rating is stagnant at -12 points as of November 14th, 2022, several top Democrats have credited Joe Biden’s incumbency for preventing a red wave. They are exaggerating their performance and will pay the price in future elections if they don’t exercise caution.
High Inflation
As soon as Joe Biden got into office, the monthly inflation rates started shooting up. In January 2022, it was at a stable 1.40%. This skyrocketed to a dangerous 9% in June 2022 [3]. The Democrats and the Federal Reserve framed it as a ‘transitory’ phenomenon. However, the steps taken by the legislative branch haven’t helped the situation.
One such example is the Inflation Reduction Act, brought up in August 2022. It was passed by Congress and signed into law. Despite its name, the non-political Congressional Budget Office concluded that the bill will negligibly affect the inflation rate. According to Morning Consult [4], less than 25% of Americans think that the bill will reduce inflation. RealClearPolitics concludes that only around 33% of Americans support President Biden’s policies on inflation, with a whopping 60% disapproval. In summation, the Biden Administration has been squarely rejected for its handling of America’s rising inflation [5]. According to several studies, inflation is projected to decline in the next few years. It will certainly not be as big of an issue as it is now, however, the economic policy of the administration will not be looked upon favourably [6].
Issue of High Crime
In the summer of 2020, in the wake of the ruthless murder of George Floyd, an autonomous zone was set up by far-left protesters in Seattle. They demanded the halving of the Seattle police budget. To the country’s dismay, the next year, the police budget was decreased by about USD 10 million, despite rising crime. The Democrat-controlled city of Seattle had caved into the interests of small-scale anarchy [7].
Vice-President Kamala Harris encouraged her followers to contribute to the “Minnesota Freedom Fund”, which had aimed at getting George Floyd protesters bailed out of jail on Twitter. Later, the program freed a man who went on to commit murder [8] [9].
With overall crime rising significantly during and after the pandemic, the Republicans successfully tied the crime predicament to the Democrats. President Biden is severely distrusted on the issue. Candidates that stood for being tough on crime performed spectacularly this year, such as Republican Lee Zeldin, who ran for Governor of New York State [10]. If this was such a winning issue, why did the Republicans perform sub-optimally? They lacked a cohesive national platform. Individual gubernatorial candidates provided certain solutions, but the senate candidates did not possess even a vague set of proposals. The Republican presidential nominee must release a national plan to tackle high crime, which should be deemed as important as a tax plan.
Abortion
According to President Biden, with the Republican majority in the House of Representatives, there is no chance of passing any legislation in support of it. On the flip side, the “Protecting Pain-Capable Unborn Children from Late-Term Abortions Act” introduced by GOP Senator Lindsey Graham, which seeks to limit abortions to 15 weeks, barring certain exceptions, will certainly not be passed [11].
The issue is roughly deadlocked in Congress, however many state legislatures will prepare to get the ball rolling in one direction or another. The catch is that most of these states are certainly going to remain blue or red. The state legislatures of the key battleground states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Arizona are Republican-controlled; however, their governors will all be Democrats, thereby making legislation unlikely to change. From the presidential perspective, if the Democrats push for moderate pro-choice legislation, which is the majority sentiment in the US, they can propel this issue to the forefront [12].
Education, the Dark Horse Issue
Education is not a top-ten issue in the country at the moment. This is because the Republicans are not communicating the issue at the national level. The potential for gains is immense, given that Glenn Youngkin’s election to the Virginia Governor’s Mansion was won solely based on this issue.
Governor Youngkin supports school choice, which gives parents a larger say in their children’s education and encourages alternative schooling methods such as homeschooling and trade schools. It promotes competition among educational institutions and with the monolithic public school system. This idea is highly approved, according to the Federation for Children [13].
This messaging resonated with the suburban mothers of Virginia significantly. This voting demographic has been voting less Republican as of late – getting them back on board is indispensable for a Republican victory.
Conclusion
The Republicans are winning on most of the important issues. They will have the advantage leading into the next election cycle, with some caveats: they must unite around a single presidential candidate, one with comprehensive plans on the key issues. They must double down on the issues of crime and education and moderate their stance on abortion. The Democrats should not be tooting their own horn but instead, focus on moderating their legislation.
Article by: Vishal Nagaraj Co-Editor, For The Record PES MUN Society, RR Campus
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