Not more than a decade ago, any open praise of Israel, no matter how mild, was considered heresy throughout the Arabian Peninsula. But these days, a kosher caterer dishes out matzo ball soup and brisket in the shadow of Dubai’s 162-story Burj Khalifa skyscraper, and Jews openly gather every Friday night for Shabbat services at a nearby synagogue.
This and similar anecdotes are evidence of the fact that Israel and the Arab nations have grown warmer to one another; not only politically, but in a public and cultural paradigm as well.
A new tide of this magnitude can only rise in old seas if drastic currents of circumstance converge. What’s more is that these currents can be traced almost 40 years back to their origin, despite their almost sudden effect.
Broken Pillars and Unexpected New Players
Traditionally, Egypt, Iraq, and Syria were the three pillars of the Arab world. However, this has changed in recent history. Egypt has seen a population growth of over 100 million but has failed to match that accordingly in socio-economic values. Over time, this has led to Egypt’s focus shifting from world politics to domestic issues.
Iraq has been engaged in a war since 1980, which has made it go through many ordeals, see many regimes, allies, foes, plundering, and left itself with wounds that are too deep to recover. Similarly, the explosion of the armed political tension in 2011 Syria was so huge that the flames are still erupting, leaving the country to burn for a long time.
Hence, a conclusion of these three pillars being much weaker than they used to be, is in order. This leaves the three non-Arab countries in the region — Israel, Iran, and Turkey.
Hay Piggy, Mud Piggy, Brick Piggy
Because of its sheer size and ancient civilization, the Gulf states, especially Saudi Arabia and the UAE, have never trusted Iran even when the Shah was in power. A common fear of Iran’s nuclear ambitions has been a prevalent feeling in the Gulf states. [1] The hot-cold relations that these ambitions bring from the west are something that has famously earned the scorn of the Arab peninsula.
Turkey has been distrusted owing to its close ties with former SSR members. Over the years, Turkey has transformed into an economic melting pot, at the expense of Islamic exclusivity. This has led it to become a faux Islamic nation in the eyes of the Gulf. Even under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and his attempts to be portrayed as a leader of the Islamic world, the Gulf is still displeased with the absence of prevalence of Islam the nation had during the Khalif days of Turkey.
The Jewish Madonna
The complexities in establishing relations with Iran and Turkey leaves Israel as the only major non-Arab player in the Middle East and a trump card for long-term diplomacy and relationship of benefit. It is important to note that “the process of elimination” is not the only way to arrive at Israel as the answer, for Israel has two major qualities that make it attractive to the Arab countries.
The first quality lies in the quip, “the way to Jerusalem is the way to Washington” [2]. The Middle East has been able to entice the U.S. with natural resources and keep it as a reliable ally at different sides and points of Middle Eastern politics. However, due to the rash and tolling nature of diplomacy and two wars, the U.S. has started to lose interest in the deadlock mess of the Middle East as the gains do not seem to be worth their effort.
In comes Israel, whose tried and tested bond with the U.S. might just be the key to reigniting the old flame for the Gulf. The only trick here for the Gulf is to work on how to engage with Israel and the U.S. without being seen as throwing the Palestinians under the bus, seeing that the U.S. does not recognize Palestine in support of the Israeli claim.
The second charm of Israel is that it is a strong country. Its economy is one of the strongest in the world, and it has a higher standard of living than many European countries. It’s a leader in civilian and military technology — in cyber, missiles, and drones as well as irrigation and water management. Israeli hospitals have secretly treated wealthy Gulf Arabs who sought quality healthcare without having to travel to Europe or the United States. Hence, in the absence of any other option, having a friend like Israel is beneficial, even in a strict commodity sense.
The Pandemic
As mentioned earlier, there is a trend of Israeli hospitals seeing wealthy Gulf clients secretly. The COVID-19 pandemic, which has hit the Middle East particularly hard, is accelerating this trend. As awful as this coronavirus has been for the entire world, it has provided a platform for opening commercial relations between Israel and the Gulf. There’s a whole ecosystem of quiet Gulf investment in Israeli startups which has become more public due to the pandemic. As a result, Israel and the Arab nations have grown closer in terms of direct trade.
Conclusion
Given the circumstances, yesterday’s foe is today’s friend. Extending cordial relations is the path to Israel becoming more influential in the Middle East. This liberty has been provided to Israel by the Gulf after carefully considering some of the aforementioned matters in this article [3]. The world must keep a keen eye on where the iron-dome heads after they are given the green signal to explore this newfound political landscape.
Article by:
Darsh Agarwal
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